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Prediction for CME (2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-22T08:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38502/-1
CME Note: Two heavily overlapping flux rope CMEs from the same source seen to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is two instances of significant dimming and opening field lines seen from the same location, AR 4065 (S31E10), starting at 2025-04-22T06:37Z then at 2025-04-22T07:24Z. There appears to be southern deflection in the UV imagery. Post eruptive brightening can be seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 2025-04-22T08:13Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-24T06:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-24T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38510/1
Model Inputs:
2025-04-22T08:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=-40.0, Speed=1583.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2025-04-22T10:47Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-24T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-23T03:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-24T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250422_104700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 37.47 hour(s)
Difference: -7.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) on 2025-04-22T16:42Z

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